Dharmavidya David Brazier - a reflection:
We all, of course, hope for good things in the year to come, but I think that most will agree that the state of the world is currently on the slide. One surely has to start from the fact that we face a serious ecological problem. All the time it is creeping up on us. We all see the signs. We read about extreme weather events and natural disasters, the fires, floods, desertification, droughts, melting ice, rising sea levels, loss of biodiversity, storms, pollution, extinctions and so on. One would think that faced with such a challenge people would pull together, cooperate and act decisively, but we all know that this is not happening - at least not to a degree likely to be effective. There are innumerable good projects, but they are too little in the face of the scale of the problem.
So what is happening. Well, again, I am not saying anything that is not obvious to everybody in pointing out that the world is currently becoming more and more divided and bogged down in conflict. Rather than uniting, we are dividing. At the end of the twentieth century some people were talking about "the end of history". The fall of the iron curtain had left Russia weak, humiliated and dismembered. Most countries welcomed the end of the Cold War and they reduced military spending. There was a sense of hope around. At that juncture the USA took advantage of the situation, increased its military spending and positioned itself as the sole super-power. Were we at the beginning of the "American Century"?
We all know that things have shifted a bit since then. In particular we have seen the rise of China which looks likely to continue. Most commentators think that China poses the biggest challenge to US domination. Responding to this, the USA has tried hard to encircle China in the same way as it used to encircle Russia, but China keeps growing and increasing its military strength. It is nowhere near equal to the USA yet, but the gap narrows. In the first decade of this century we thought that this process would continue, but that it would be a long time before China caught up. Since then, however, two big developments have tipped the scales a bit faster than we were expecting.
Firstly, Ukraine. The USA since Clinton has kept pushing NATO's eastward expansion. Russia protested endlessly, but the West was so used to the idea that Russia was now a spent force that nobody listened. However, under Putin, Russia has regrouped and got back onto its feet. The breaking point came when it was proposed that Ukraine become part of NATO & of the EU. Russia could not stand by and let this happen. War broke out and continues. Initially the Ukrainians, with American backing, did much better than anybody expected, but the Russians have learnt how to fight this kind of war and the tables are turning. The war will probably go on for several more years and Ukraine will be devastated. The most significant effect, however, has been that it has driven Russia into an alliance with China. In terms of the primary world conflict this strengthens the Chinese side considerably.
Secondly, Gaza. The USA, already committed to major expenditure to shore up Ukraine, is now suddenly also committed to another major conflict. How long will this one go on for? How much American resources will it drain away? There is plenty of reason to think that this conflict is not going to be over in a few weeks as was originally thought. Not only that, but the ferocity of the Israeli response is causing much disquiet all around the globe. This is costing America a lot in lost goodwill. In the Global South (what we used to call The third World), sympathy is largely with the Palestinians. This is all very good news to China which has been courting support in those non-aligned countries for some time.
America remains the supreme power for the moment. Its main allies, or, perhaps we should say, its seven major protectorates - Britain, Europe, Israel, Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, & Australia - hold fast, and that makes a very powerful block. However, in the rest of the world it has lost ground. We are not quite into a second Cold War yet, but the two sides are approaching parity faster than anybody expected.
All of this, of course, severely handicaps efforts to tackle the real problem which is ecological. We fight among ourselves while our house is burning down.
Now if much of this is obvious to any intelligent observer, one has to ask if there are deeper less obvious factors at work. Why, for instance, would the USA push Russia into an alliance with its main opponent? We are now into the realm of speculation, but to understand this, I think we have to look at the foundations of American power. If we look at those seven countries that are the mainstay of the American alliance, two things stand out.
The first is that militarily, none of them pull their weight, and this is especially true of Europe. The deal is that they stay on-side as long as the US pays for their protection. This is very costly to the US and a good deal for the Europeans who can spend their money on citizen benefits rather than defence. At the end of World war II this all made good sense because the USA was rich and the rest of the world was devastated, but now living standards in all seven areas are at least at parity and mostly quite a bit superior to what most Americans are experiencing. Life expectancy in all of them is higher than in the USA. How long can America afford this? This is a dilemma that particularly exercised President Trump and whether he returns to power or not, clearly he does respresent a substantial slice of American opinion.
The second thing is that these six are all sophisticated technological societies that, if they did rearm, would each be formidable powers. Is it possible that the real reason for the Ukraine war has to do with the desire of the USA to avoid any alliance between Europe and Russia? Europe, especially Germany, was building closer ties to Russia. Geographically an alliance between European technology and consumerism on the one hand and Russian resources, especially energy, minerals and agriculture, would make a lot of sense. Such an alliance would put America in the shade. It would topple American dominance much faster than anything China can do. Although having Russia ally with China is to American disadvantage, from Washington it could well be seen as less disadvantageous than an alliance between Russia and Europe. The latter would be the end of NATO. To stay on top, America has to keep Europe and Russia apart and antagonistic to one another. Of course, nobody would ever say this in public. In a democracy, you have to keep the people in the dark about the real power plays.
In similar fashion, America has to keep the Middle East divided. The Moslem world, if united, would also be a formidable force, but as long as Saudi, Egypt, Iran & Turkey remain in balance neutralising each other, America can exploit the oil resources and make sure that no other power intrudes too strongly. Israeli action in Gaza has, however, gone some way toward bringing the Islamic powers together. How far will this go? Also, Russia does, of course, have a foothold in Syria and one wonders if the present troubles will give further openings to Russia or China in that region now that the US is shown to be wholly on the side of an anti-Arab force.
So, broadly speaking, American hegemony depends upon a policy of divide and rule, but some divisions thrust other partners together, so the "game" is a complex one full of pitfalls and it seems to have an inherent tendency to move toward a bi-polar tension. At present things seem to be moving toward a situation where there will roughly be a kind of parity between the pro-American and anti-American alliances and this is a recipe for, on the one hand, the kind of stalemate that militates against any effective action on the really important ecological issues and, on the other, for a ceaseless series of proxy wars that consume and destroy resources that should be being used to combat the greater threat. The chess pieces are always moving and we should not under-estimate the current twofold danger from grueling wars of attrition and from ecological degradation. There are difficult times ahead. In such times, faith & practice become ever more vital.
We learn Buddhist psychology and generally think in terms of the individual, but the same processes play out on the larger scale. In samsara, the typical responses to affliction tend only to cause more affliction. Currently we are seeing it on a global scale. What is the alternative? Nirodha - restraint, understanding, compassion, wise cooperation. Such is the way of Dharma, both for the single person, the family, the community and for nations. Yet we are tied to the wheel. Let us pray that the new year bring a change for the better.
~ Dharmavidya David Brazier
:: Global Sangha
Comments