Dharmavidya David Brazier - a reflection:
We all, of course, hope for good things in the year to come, but I think that most will agree that the state of the world is currently on the slide. One surely has to start from the fact that we face a serious ecological problem. All the time it is creeping up on us. We all see the signs. We read about extreme weather events and natural disasters, the fires, floods, desertification, droughts, melting ice, rising sea levels, loss of biodiversity, storms, pollution, extinctions and so on. One would think that faced with such a challenge people would pull together, cooperate and act decisively, but we all know that this is not happening - at least not to a degree likely to be effective. There are innumerable good projects, but they are too little in the face of the scale of the problem.
So what is happening. Well, again, I am not saying anything that is not obvious to everybody in pointing out that the world is currently becoming more and more divided and bogged down in conflict. Rather than uniting, we are dividing. At the end of the twentieth century some people were talking about "the end of history". The fall of the iron curtain had left Russia weak, humiliated and dismembered. Most countries welcomed the end of the Cold War and they reduced military spending. There was a sense of hope around. At that juncture the USA took advantage of the situation, increased its military spending and positioned itself as the sole super-power. Were we at the beginning of the "American Century"?
We all know that things have shifted a bit since then. In particular we have seen the rise of China which looks likely to continue. Most commentators think that China poses the biggest challenge to US domination. Responding to this, the USA has tried hard to encircle China in the same way as it used to encircle Russia, but China keeps growing and increasing its military strength. It is nowhere near equal to the USA yet, but the gap narrows. In the first decade of this century we thought that this process would continue, but that it would be a long time before China caught up. Since then, however, two big developments have tipped the scales a bit faster than we were expecting.
Firstly, Ukraine. The USA since Clinton has kept pushing NATO's eastward expansion. Russia protested endlessly, but the West was so used to the idea that Russia was now a spent force that nobody listened. However, under Putin, Russia has regrouped and got back onto its feet. The breaking point came when it was proposed that Ukraine become part of NATO & of the EU. Russia could not stand by and let this happen. War broke out and continues. Initially the Ukrainians, with American backing, did much better than anybody expected, but the Russians have learnt how to fight this kind of war and the tables are turning. The war will probably go on for several more years and Ukraine will be devastated. The most significant effect, however, has been that it has driven Russia into an alliance with China. In terms of the primary world conflict this strengthens the Chinese side considerably.
Secondly, Gaza. The USA, already committed to major expenditure to shore up Ukraine, is now suddenly also committed to another major conflict. How long will this one go on for? How much American resources will it drain away? There is plenty of reason to think that this conflict is not going to be over in a few weeks as was originally thought. Not only that, but the ferocity of the Israeli response is causing much disquiet all around the globe. This is costing America a lot in lost goodwill. In the Global South (what we used to call The third World), sympathy is largely with the Palestinians. This is all very good news to China which has been courting support in those non-aligned countries for some time.